Among the nearly 4,000 Yoshino cherry trees near the Tidal Basin, there is one that consistently flowers a week to ten days before the others. It's so reliable, National Park Service officials call it the "indicator tree," and use it to predict when the rest of the trees will bloom.

This year, in the middle of a weirdly warm winter, D.C.'s indicator tree is already starting to show flower buds — the first stage before the bloom. This could mean an early peak bloom, possibly even a record-breaking early bloom.

You could call it a cherry blossom in the coal mine.

"It is definitely showing buds on the tree, probably a couple of weeks ahead of where it was last year," says Mike Litterst, an NPS spokesperson. The tree is located just east of the Jefferson Memorial.

This January was 8 degrees warmer than normal — the third warmest ever recorded in D.C., and the warmest since 1950. So far, February has been 4.5 degrees above normal, and looks likely to stay warm.

Warmer winters, of course, cause trees to blossom early.

Since the Tidal Basin cherry trees were first planted more than 100 years ago, the average peak bloom date has moved up about seven days due to global warming. During the past century, the average peak bloom date was April 4, but peak bloom has occurred before that date 16 out of the past 20 years. This year's peak bloom also looks highly likely to occur before the historical average date.

The earliest peak bloom on record was March 15, 1990.

The warming trend in D.C. goes back at least 50 years — during that time, the city's annual average temperatures have risen by 2 degrees Fahrenheit.

"So there is certainly that correlation between warmer temperatures and an earlier peak bloom," says Litterst.

In recent years, most of the cherry trees have entered the green bud stage anywhere from the last week in February to the middle of March. If the indicator tree is to be believed, this year most trees will be budding by Feb. 26. On the early side for sure, but not unheard of.

Warmer winters and early blooms are not the only the only way climate change is impacting Washington's famous cherry trees. Rising sea level is also a threat — in 2019, the Tidal Basin was named one of the "most endangered" historic places. Over the past century, the Potomac River (which the Tidal Basin is part of) has risen about 1 ft. It could rise another 3 ft. or more by 2080.

There are still four more weeks of winter, despite what the thermometer says (yesterday hit a high of 69 degrees — 21 degrees above normal). But: an unexpected cold snap could still slow down the trees' progress toward bloom.

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